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加中时报:大选之剑高悬 为谁掌握?

联邦国会复会在即,联邦自由党已发动强劲攻势,摆出架势欲在今秋推翻保守党少数政府,大选果然会一触即发?近年来「大选」之议在加国政坛中形同高悬的「达摩克利斯之剑」,各党争掌,然而,在目前加国政经格局中,真正决战刃伤何方尚难言断。

联邦自由党在暑期一过即打出主战牌,党魁叶礼庭甚至连期盼很高的中国之行也延期,显示自由党在政治对垒中的先声气势,但这种表面阵仗并不足以证明其有实力或做足准备来推翻哈珀政府,至少目前保守党与自由党的基本盘并未出现重大改变,叶礼庭的政治叫阵,意欲施发政治测风球的意味更重。

自加国在近5年来出现均衡政治生态以来,大选之剑就高高悬起,保守党与自由党都在寻找良机掌握利剑,夺取多数政府的执政权,自由党想夺回执政权,哈珀何尝不盼拥有多数政府的绝对指挥权?故而去年他也诱引了一场不算成功的大选。如今叶礼庭再起大选之议,各政党的政治算计重新展开。

政治选举最终诉诸於民意,政党以革新政纲吸纳选票,但从目前叫战的联邦自由党政纲来看,基本上还是主打以往的经济牌,再辅以环保、贸易、健保等主张,并未跳出旧有框架,如此架势尚难看出胜机,故而连哈珀对自由党政见也轻而视之。保守党方面还是按部就班执行其原经济复苏计划,低调应对并未示弱,就哈珀的企图心而论,他完全可能在大选时机上抢先,包括可能利用9月中财政预算案出台之机,主动逼迫信任投票,提早进入大选程序,所以大选之剑到底刃指何方仍不明朗。

叫阵未必求战 低调暗藏杀机

叶礼庭此时高调论战,毫无疑问是受到党内主战派强大压力之下的举措,联邦自由党数年来重整党务,并未有太多政绩显现,党内已积蓄了很强的求战力量,同时也是急躁情绪的涌动,叶礼庭内外交战,安抚团结党内各派势力,至今未摆脱左右受肘制的困境,在自由党政治策略、政纲方面的突破不大,在金融风暴冲击之际未见太多经济复苏主张,往往是针对哈珀政策为反对而反对的姿态,主动积极性并不显见,目前还未显出其政治大略,日後能否有政治利器还待观察。

自然,在目前政治基本盘未有变动的情势下,大选的胜负还是在於政党合纵连横的功夫,这种格局已维持了多年,说白了就是两大党有何计策令新民主党及魁人政团投入己营,利益的博弈游戏越演越烈,权谋更深,何时为国为民着想?新民主党与魁人政团虽然可以不断讨价还价,有坐享渔人之利的地位,但也害怕一党坐大的局面,这就需要精准的拿捏算度,但这两党的党魁都缺乏前瞻智慧,总是在两大党间转台「跳舞」,言行常常不一,哈珀与以往自由党党魁狄安都吃过暗亏,如今哈珀与叶礼庭也未必全信他们所言,只会当他们为不成熟的利用配角。近日新民主党与魁人政团闪烁其词的表现,还是为了在看风向中捞取更多政治资本。

未来所有政坛变局的交织点还是经济,如果经济持稳,民众强烈感受到最坏的时间已经过去,在消费信心上升之时,选民对重新大选的意愿也会下降,那保守党的地位会日益稳固,操弄大选之剑的主动权应在保守党一方,自由党的贸然行事反可能会剑刃伤己。

由此格局可以探视到,联邦自由党羽翼尚未丰满,目前仍缺乏政治联合手段,此际再高论战也只是在布局,离收官之时尚远,如果联邦保守党不逼迫太急,估计自由党短期内也不敢仓促冒进,大选短期内颇难成真,但隔空叫战声音仍会响亮,选民自可冷静等待,变局之时再作明智判断。

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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/video/ignatieff-calls-harper-two-faced/article1282698/
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民调下降, 最近两天老叶老实多了 Could have been PM, Ignatieff says, ‘but I turned it down' Liberal Leader points to his decision to abandon coalition as proof he's not aiming to cut a deal with ‘separatists and socialists,' as Harper accuses him of in leaked video Campbell Clark Ottawa — The Globe and Mail Last updated on Thursday, Sep. 10, 2009 07:29PM EDT Michael Ignatieff says the proof that he's not scheming to head a coalition government is that he rejected the prime minister's chair in January. Stephen Harper made it clear in a surreptitiously-recorded speech to Conservative insiders last week that he will campaign for a majority government by warning that the Liberals harbour a hidden agenda to take power in a coalition backed by the NDP and Bloc Québécois. They will try to resurrect memories of former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion's attempt last December to defeat the Prime Minister and form a coalition government with the NDP, propped up by Bloc votes. But as proof that is not his goal, Mr. Ignatieff points to the fact that after he became Liberal Leader he declined to defeat the Tories eight weeks later on their January budget, killing off the coalition. “I could have been standing here as prime minister of Canada, but I turned it down,” he said. Mr. Harper is seen practicing attacks on what he claims is a hidden Liberal coalition plan in a grainy cell-phone video of a speech he gave to Conservatives in a closed-door meeting in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. The Liberals say a student recorded the speech and gave it to them, and the party delivered it to the the CBC, which broadcast it. In it, Mr. Harper not only warns of the coalition plan, but charges the Liberals would raise taxes and appoint “left-wing ideologues” to the courts and governments boards. “There have always been two Harpers,” Mr. Ignatieff told reporters in Montreal today. “The real Harper always comes out when he thinks he can't be heard.” That Mr. Harper was on display in the leaked video: “Most of all friends, I want to tell you this, and I want to tell you this frankly: It will be a choice between having a Conservative government or not having a Conservative government. And let me be clear about this: we need to win a majority in the next election campaign,” Mr. Harper said in the speech. “I am not just saying that because we need a few more seats: you saw what happened last year. Do not be fooled for a moment. If we do not get a majority, the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois will combine and they will form a government. They will deny this till they are blue in the face in an election campaign, but I guarantee it, if we do not win a majority, this country will have a Liberal government propped up by the socialists and the separatists.” Mr. Harper has avoided direct calls for a majority since the 2004 election campaign he narrowly lost – because many Tories believed the prospect of a too-right government scared some centre and left voters back to the Liberal camp. Mr. Harper's attempt to pin hidden hopes of leading a coalition on Mr. Ignatieff also provide the Conservative with a “wedge” that splits them from all the other parties. But it's not clear if it will stick : the coalition was short-lived and is largely forgotten, and Mr. Ignatieff only reluctantly backed Mr. Dion's scheme, and killed the coalition once he became leader. In his speech, Mr. Harper warns that a Liberal government propped up by the NDP and Bloc might now last long, but would do “long-term” damage to the country, favouring soft on crime policies, appointing left-wing judges, and expanding spending permanently. Mr. Harper makes clear that it is not just coalitions he will campaign against, but that he will charge that the Liberals will raise taxes as the recession ends, while the Tories won't. The huge deficits generated by recession-era stimulus packages means either future cuts to government spending or future hikes in taxes, and Mr. Harper will promise to protect Canadians' pocketbooks. “They have said, and I know Mr. Ignatieff is trying to change his tune today, they have said repeatedly they would raise taxes to pay for that spending, to pay for their permanent spending.” “And that, friends, is one of the biggest single reasons this government needs to be elected: so when the recession is over, we can keep taxes going down in this country.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/could-have-been-pm-ignatieff-says-but-i-turned-it-down/article1282210/
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可惜组织不够强大,还望华侨多多支持,目前的最低要求是保证我党大卫同志连任。 我新 我民 我主 我党
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民调下降, 最近两天老叶老实多了
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2001 到 2003 年的上一次经济危机(程度比这次轻多了), 加拿大是自由党执政, 其内阁中有比教授出身的现自由党党魁叶礼庭更好的企业家出身的马丁管经济, 加拿大还不是在美国经济好转后才跟着走出衰退? 现在的自由党对管理经济的能力和人才还不如2001年的时候, 就算勉强上台能干出什么来? 说白了就是叶礼庭教授想试试早点当总理, 过过官瘾.
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