经合组织:加国失业率走高将持续数年

最新消息：美国失业州数从七月份的29个上升到42个 The Labor Department also reported Friday that 27 states saw their unemployment rates increase in August, and 14 states and Washington D.C., reported unemployment rates of 10 percent or above. 劳动部星期五说，八月份27个州的失业率增加，14个州和华盛顿特区的失业率达到或超过10%。 美国应该有51个州，对吧？！42/51=82.3% 🙄 🙄

《获得诺贝尔奖的Krugman 认为: 未来几年将会有两位数的失业》 Krugman, who received a Nobel Prize for economics in 2008, said the acute phase of the global crisis had passed but the recovery is likely to feel like a "continuing recession." 2008年获得诺贝尔奖的 Krugman 的观点是：精确的说全球危机已经过去，但是恢复更象是“继续处在衰退当中”。 这就是获得诺贝尔奖者的结论？什么叫“had passed ”和“continuing recession”？

今日（9/18/2009）最新消息：美国有五个州的失业数据出来了。失业率超过12% 《5 states' jobless rates top 12%》 加州、内华达州、罗得州等失业率创新高。

“理财赚家”　说：Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher。钱在忽悠他，他在忽悠人。　 “As this chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. “ Too Much Debt? Please. We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher Posted Sep 17, 2009 09:00am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession Related: tlt, tbt, spy, dia, ^gspc, udn, uup The conventional wisdom is that Americans are struggling to crawl out from under a mountain of debt that will restrain growth and weigh down the economy for decades. As this chart shows, the US debt-to-GDP ratio recently soared to an all time high of 370%, meaning that for every $1 of output we produce, we have borrowed $3.70. This compares to a long-term debt-to-GDP average of about 150%. Last time we went on a massive debt binge, in the 1920s, our debt-to-GDP ratio hit a relatively mild 250%, and we spent the better part of two decades (and the Great Depression) working it off. Many economists think the same thing will happen this time around. But they're wrong, says Ken Fisher, CEO of Fisher Investments ($35 billion under management), in a wildly contrarian view. The U.S. has too little debt, not too much, Fisher says. The U.S.'s return on assets is high and interest rates are low, so our borrowing capacity is much higher than our current debt levels. Also, Fisher says, you have to look at the U.S. in the context of the world, because the U.S. is only 25% of world GDP. The world is way under-leveraged, so one country's particular debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't matter. To say Fisher's view is unusual is an understatement: I, for one, haven't heard it since before the crash, when everyone from Fed Chairmen to fund managers to Wall Street economists were seeing no evil and projecting blue skies into the hereafter. Fisher was making the same argument then, too, by the way--before the housing sector crashed and triggered a foreclosure crisis among millions of Americans whose debt burden had become way more than they could manage. This is not to say that, in a perfect world, in which every borrower knew his or her exact debt capacity and never exceeded it, in which no borrower ever made a stupid investment (think those who lent money to banks) or used debt to fund consumption (think using houses as ATMs), we could not safely boost total debt far beyond today's levels. It is also not to say that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio won't keep charging upwards to 500%+ of GDP and stay there forever. It is to say that Fisher's view is startling and provocative. I, for one, know a lot of folks who would love to borrow a lot more, and it would be nice to think that doing so was smart, not irresponsible (so 2007!). So I'll definitely explore this theory further. http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/334648/Too-Much-Debt--Please.--We-Need-MORE-Debt-Says-Ken-Fisher?tickers=tlt,tbt,spy,dia,^gspc,udn,uup

关键是要在看大环境，比如说，经济危机真的过去了吗？在美国的有毒资产占金融系统的90%的情况下，你相信媒体的有关“金融危机已经过去了”的宣传吗？ 当人的贪婪转到整个国家机器都参与其中的时候（比如现在的美国政府），美国必然要衰亡，这是不争的事实。看一下“艾略特波浪理论新解”当中的道指数，我们正在第V浪当中，明眼人都知道第（V）V浪之后是什么： 《艾略特波浪理论新解（七）》 还是从１９２９年美国出现大股灾说起吧！在当时，道．琼斯工业平均指数的最高点是３８６点，不到几年，它就急跌到了４５点的低谷。就是从这里开始，艾略特所认为的第五次浪潮展开。（图１）。毫无疑问，５个次一级的子浪已经清晰地呈现在我们的眼前，只是，其中的第５浪尚未结束而已。但是，美国人却不这么看，有人认为道．琼斯指数在未来的５０年将会上升至１０万点水平，请对照一下我们之前所列举的波浪特性，这是否就是某些分析师的“豪言壮语”呢？ 　　　　　　　　 在第五次浪潮最初的几年、十几年，体积庞大的电子管电子计算机就发明出来，后来，人类终于登上了月球（实际上成了第五次浪潮中第三个子浪潮的高点）。而比尔．盖茨则让美国人体验了第五个子浪潮的第五个小浪潮的疯狂。我认为，第五次浪潮实际上是指电脑浪潮。在这个浪潮当中，电脑扮演了很重要的角色。经济学家、股市分析家、行业分析师的分析只是作为注释而已。甚至政府首脑的讲话，也无法违背自然规律。无论是多么的美妙，算盘还是被电脑赶出了这个历史舞台。现在，电脑行业的发展速度就跟一些遭恶炒股票的上升速度一样，越来越快。但只是强调多功能及速度快。而且，甚至是文盲，也可以轻而易举地介入这个行业。ＰＣ领域，一个又一个的分支遭到产品加速跌价问题的困扰。先是ＣＰＵ，接着是板卡、硬盘、内存、显示器，现在是打印机、扫描仪。这一切无不为５浪５作了最好的说明。 2001年的911衰退之后，我们有新的无线手机等通讯的新增长点。那么现在，在金融泡沫之后还有什么新的经济增长点？没有！ 所以，失业率的高低只是暂时显现，关键是新的经济增长点的问题

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