Garth, I know your statistics for new inventory entering the Canadian market are absolutely spot-on. It is absolutely alarming to think Toronto alone as 17,000 new units entering the market this year. I’m sure people cannot comprehend what that really entails, but allow me to break it down. All things are relative.
The closest U.S. market to a city such as Toronto would be New York City. Each city is the beacon of financial strength within each country, and each are relatively close to one another on the Eastern side of each country. Here’s the deal… Stay with me now…
Toronto has a metro population of 5,113,000 people. New York City has a metro population of 19,007,000 people. Toronto has 17,000 ADDITIONAL condos coming to market this year, NOT including existing inventory today. New York has about 12,700 condos on the market today. These are the data points we will use for this discussion.
New York is almost 3.72 times the size of Toronto, or 372% larger than Toronto. However, New York has significantly less aggregated inventory coming to fruition compared to that of Toronto. New York has 4,300 LESS condos in inventory than Toronto to serve a market that is 372% larger than Toronto.
Prices, even in New York, have declined over 20%. Yes, prices fell that much even with inventory supply at that minimum level. So, what’s this say for Toronto? Well, these numbers indicate that, when adjusted for population, Toronto has 500%, FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT, of the inventory of New York. THAT DOESN’T EVEN INCLUDE EXISTING TORONTO INVENTORY. Simply put, Toronto is complete toast in the very near future. No amount of immigration, flipping, new buyers, move-ups, move-downs, or speculation will save it. Canada’s TOTAL immigration each year does not even amount to the immigration that New York receives each year. No more excuses, and no more “we’re different” pathetic b.s. It is over.
第1季全国房市强劲 3月GTA房价升5%