文世昌：省选尘埃落定 魁独噩梦有多大？

QUEBEC ELECTION PQ VICTORY =A NIGHTMATRE OF CANADA SEPARATION ?

魁人党Parti Quebebecois赢得魁省省选，女党魁马华Pauline Marois made history, but failed to win majority。她创造了首次女性在魁省执政的历史，但未能以大多数政府胜出。魁人党今次以minority government少数政府第3度在魁省掌权执政。

魁人党女党魁马华Pauline Marois

一向持魁独立场的政党，会不会很快再次发动魁省独立公投？Will its pro-sovereignty agenda push another referendum on sovereignty any time soon ?

魁省独立再次成为加拿大国民的悬念。

熟悉魁省政情的资深评论员Chantal Herbert ，即时在Toronto Star《多伦多星报》以Not the Parti she had planned为题，有相当肯定的分析：

If Marois could not win more than a third of the vote against a tired Liberal government and a rookie CAQ party and against the backdrop of a tremendously unpopular federal government she might be hard-pressed to do better in a rematch。
For the third time in as many decades, a sovereigntist sword of Damocles is hanging over Canada。 But appearances can be deceiving。 In this instance, the sword is essentially a prop。

她指出悬在加拿大国民头上魁独的利剑，几十年来第3次再度出现，从各方面观察，很有可能只是虚招幌子，今次，这柄木剑，基本上不过是政治舞台的道具！

Sword of Damocles希腊神话中Damocles达摩克利斯在一根头髮悬挂利剑之下用餐的allusion典故，a sword suspended by a single thread of hair 比喻令人忧虑或畏惧，随时可能降临的灾祸，an impending potential disaster of a referendum on sovereignty is a bad thing that might happen at any time and that makes Canadians feel worried or frightened。

Sovereignty is a political euphemism for avoidance of hard words政治上的委婉语。Sovereigntist是加拿大国民以至魁独人士同样接受，对主权主义者习惯的委婉说法，避过分裂国家的贬义。

Globe and Mail《环球邮报》专栏作家John Ibbitson，也用上Harper offered powerful chance to smother sovereigntist in Quebec 这个标题。他个人认为今次魁省省选的结果，不会是下一个魁独公投的前奏曲:

The Parti Québécois’ victory is not the overture to a third referendum on sovereignty。

魁省不会回到1995年时，省民不断的争拗和永无至境的焦虑：

There won’t be endless and fruitless debates, failed conferences, court challenges and other agonies。

Secession or separation has not sufficient support in Quebec。主张分裂国家的少数政府，未有足够的民众受命，不足以在National Assembly议会推动这个独立议题：

A minority separatist government will have no mandate to push a question on independence through the National Assembly。

Minority will mean compromise，少数政府表示只有妥协，没有硬闯魁独的馀地。

Clearly, any prospect of holding a referendum on secession is now out of the question, since both the CAQ and the Liberals, with or without Jean Charest, would be adamantly opposed。

Globe and Mail 《环球邮报》9月5日的社论，也有类似的观点，选民只是对执政9年的自由党表示厌倦而己：

Quebec did not vote for an independent Quebec in Tuesday’s election。 The vote for the Parti Québécois was a narrow vote for change after nine years of Jean Charest’s Liberal government, that is all。

总理哈珀说得有道理：

We do not believe that Quebecers wish to revisit the old constitutional battles of the past。

但同时哈珀也将会面对马华女省长这个相当难缠的对手，Ottawa Citizen《渥太华公民报》刊出政论家William Johnson的专文 The PQ aims to divide，分析魁人党和联邦政府的关係，认为Marois马华鼓吹radical and divisive politics，极端分化的政纲，对加拿大讲究统一团结的联邦主义，很具破坏力：

MAROIS has promised in her first 100 days in power to enact the most divisive aspects of the most radical electoral program in the history of the PQ。

首先，她会在保险金供款、文化政策、传播自主等多方面，要求哈珀将权力下放到魁省 ：
First, she proposes to meet Prime Minister Stephen Harper and put to him her government’s demands that he transfer to Quebec all powers over language, culture, communications and employment insurance。

其次，她会主张法语独大，将英语边缘化：

Next, she will pursue the objective of marginalizing the English language。

第三，她会一手推动立法，泡製史无前例的所谓“魁省公民”，要求所有法例通过后的新移民，法语必需有流利的能力，才有参选的资格。

Third, Marois has also promised to enact a bill creating and defining for the first time a “Quebec citizenship。” It would create two classes of citizens: all immigrants arriving after the bill would have to show competence in French to be eligible for elected office within provincial and municipal jurisdiction。

哈珀必需要礼貌备至而又坚定不移地，拒绝所有不合理的诉求。他既要技巧地对付魁独这隻逐渐冷却的烫手熟山芋，又要施展浑身解数，若即若离，不卑不亢。

He has to politely and firmly reject every demand to practise the strategy of non-engagement：no negotiation, no accommodation。

渥太华智库Macdonald-Laurier Institute的研究中心主任Brian Lee Crowley 说得好：
“If Stephen Harper plays his cards well, he could marginalize the sovereigntist movement in Quebec in a way it has not been since the 1960s。
Of course, if Mr。 Harper plays his cards badly, he could provoke a separatist rebellion”。

是噩梦？是福音？跟着几个月，便要严厉考验总理的政治技巧了。

The coming months will offer a powerful test of the Prime Minister’s political skills。

一如《环球邮报》9月5日社论的标题：Over to you, Mr Harper。