1. 无忧资讯 /
  2. 本地 /
  3. 有房没房都很紧张:央行明天是否加息? /

有房的没房的都很紧张:央行明天是否会加息?

今年7月,加拿大央行在7年之后首次加息,将隔夜利率从0.5%调高至0.75%。明天又是例行的议息日,加拿大央行如何动作,牵动着千千万万加拿大消费者的心,有房的没房的都很紧张:央行明天是否会加息?

安省的房地产咨询专家Ross Kay指出,很理解有房的业主和无房的购房一族都很紧张,因为对业主而言,每一次升息都会都他们的按揭月供造成直接影响,另外一个影响则是,加息也意味着对房市的压抑,可能导致房价下跌。这是一个简单的算术,谁都算得出来。即使你不算出来,你的银行账单也会告诉你。

对潜在买家的影响也是显而易见的,根据联邦金融机构监管办公室OSFI(Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions)的规定,要求各银行和贷款机构对借贷者进行压力测试,并对借贷风险特别留意,对借贷者的贷款记录进行详细审查。而加息则意味着对买家的信用等方面的要求更高,或迫使一些买家进入代价更高昂的次贷市场。

就在上周三,由金融网络服务组织对经济学家的调查显示,多数人认为,综合各种情况来看,加拿大央行在9月6日加息的可能性不大,不少人认为不到50%。但次日即上周四联邦统计局发布加拿大经济的季度增长数字之后,不少经济学家开始转变观点,认为加拿大央行加息的可能性大增。

联邦统计局在8月31日发布的数据称,加拿大GDP在今年第二季度按年增长4.5%,不仅增长率在G7国家中遥遥领先,也大大高于多数经济学家的预期。统计局还说,加拿大经济今年表现不俗,其中第一季度GDP按年增长率曾经达到3.7%,第二季度4.5%,如果综合这6个月来看,应该是加拿大15年来最强劲的增长。

与此同时,加拿大经济还有一个亮点,那就是在房市辉煌不再之后,就业市场却火起来了!根据最新资料,加拿大在过去12个月净增387,000份工作职位,失业率降至6.3%,为9年来最低水平。

此外,在劳动节长周末之前,加元兑美元汇率为80.79美分,升0.74%,为两年来的高位。当时就有专家预测,加拿大央行在本周第二次加息的机率已经上升至50%。CIBC银行的分析师Avery Shenfeld就指出,加元继续走高不仅会影响出口,而且可能带来一定的通缩,而央行现在需要的却是少许的通胀。

央行是否加息 经济学家有分歧

目前至少有两家银行的经济学家认为,明天央行会加息,包括上述CIBC银行的Avery Shenfeld,以及Scotiabank的Derek Holt。

但满银(BMO)的经济学家Benjamin Reitzes则有不同意见,他说自7月份加息以来,加拿大央行的官员一直不声不响,而在7月12日第一次加息之前,多位官员现身并放出加息的风声。按照惯例以及央行行长波洛兹(Stephen Poloz)的行事风格,他和他属下的团队即使不明言加息,也该会有所暗示,但目前为止,央行连一丁点儿暗示都没有。

再者,迄今为止,央行似乎也没有计划在明天出台货币政策报告,因此估计明天央行不会采取加息举动,只是发布一项声明而已。而详尽的货币政策报告,则可能要等到10月份。

BoC Interest Rate 20170712

1/3加拿大人担忧央行再加息

在今年7月份央行第一次加息之后,由民调公司Forum Research所做的调查显示,不少加拿大人担忧央行再次加息。

在全国1,150名受访者中,有超过1/3即34%的加拿大人说,央行在7月份加息对他们的财务状况有负面影响,其中12%甚至表示,影响甚巨。

年轻人似乎对加息更为敏感:在35-44岁年龄组中,有44%的人说加息对他们的经济状况有很大负面影响。收入较高的人似乎也对加息更敏感:年收入$60,000-80,000人群中,有39%的人说他们对加息感到不安;$80,000-100,000人群中,有41%的受访者认为加息对他们有不利影响。

加拿大公司Richter LLP的首席经济学家David Hogan指出,考虑到家庭债务水平高企,加拿大人对加息感到紧张一点都不奇怪。尤其是那些有房的业主以及打算买房的潜在业主,央行加息意味着按揭利率升高,他们当然为之忧虑。

MD Financial Management的贷款经理Patrick Ercolano同意这个说法。他说如果一名业主有25年期$500,000的按揭,那么央行加息之后每月要多供款$75。不过好消息是,加息也意味着经济向好。

网友评论

网友评论仅供其表达个人看法,并不表明 51.CA 立场。
加息,加税,加人口,加人工,加物价,加房租。。。熟么都加,唯独房价暴跌?做梦。。。
回复
我有房也希望加息。
回复
估计明天不加但十月份加息。 今天最大的新闻是税法要变了,中小业主通过公司税走个人收入税的合法逃税的将要被禁止了, 同时假装雇妻儿子女发假工资的也要被税法禁止了。财政部长今天给环球邮报发了Letter: https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/tax-changes-are-about-levelling-the-playing-field/article36161429/ Tax changes are about levelling the playing field BILL MORNEAU CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL 55 MINUTES AGO SEPTEMBER 5, 2017 Bill Morneau is Canada's Minister of Finance. I know first-hand that running a business is hard work. It involves taking risks, suffering setbacks and often a great deal of sacrifice. As Canada's Finance Minister, I am committed to ensuring that this hard work is rewarded, so that businesses small and large are able to invest, grow and create jobs. The good news is businesses are doing just that. In the past year, we have seen the fastest real GDP growth in more than a decade. Second quarter results at 4.5-per-cent growth and more than 350,000 new full-time jobs created over the past year mean our economy is growing faster than any Group of Seven country. But economic growth alone is not good enough. That is why, as its first order of business, our government introduced a middle-class tax cut that is benefiting nearly nine million Canadians – and, yes, to finance it, we raised taxes on the top 1 per cent. It is also why we brought in the Canada Child Benefit, which puts more money in the pockets of nine out of 10 families, helping lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty – leading to a 40-per-cent reduction in child poverty by the end of this calendar year. But the job is not done. Over the past 15 years, we have seen big changes in our economy. The number of Canadian-controlled private corporations (CCPCs) has increased by 50 per cent and makes up a much bigger part of our economy than they did in the early 2000s. For professionals, the number of corporations has tripled over that same period. While we know most businesses are investing and creating jobs, we also know that corporate structures are being used to reduce personal taxes. That leaves us with a challenge that is unsustainable. As more and more people set up corporations, there is a growing number of individuals who have access to tax advantages not available to other hard-working Canadians. This means that some of the highest-income earners are effectively being taxed at a much lower rate than everyone else. It is legal, but as a former business owner and high-income earner myself, I do not think it is right. The average income in Canada is estimated to be about $49,000 this year. An incorporated professional earning $300,000 with a spouse and two adult children can save about $48,000 in taxes by using just one of these loopholes. What that means is an incorporated professional could be taxed at a lower rate than a salaried nurse practitioner or police officer making much less a year. Earlier this summer, we launched a consultation on proposals to address this problem. As part of this effort, I am visiting small business owners and professionals across the country, looking to hear their ideas, concerns and to answer their questions. Most middle-class Canadians and small businesses will be unaffected by these changes. According to the Coalition for Small Business Tax Fairness, 66 per cent of small businesses earn less than $73,000 a year. For passive investment income to provide an advantage over and above what is available to every Canadian through RRSPs and TFSAs, a business owner needs to earn more than $150,000. That is because the more you earn, the more you stand to benefit from these tax-planning strategies. No wonder some estimate that two thirds of the wealthiest 0.01 per cent own a CCPC. For those business owners and professionals who have saved and planned for their retirement under the existing rules, I want to be clear: We have no intention of going back in time. Our intent is that changes will apply only on a go-forward basis and neither existing savings, nor investment income from those savings, will be touched. Farm owners will continue to receive a lifetime capital gains exemption of up to $1-million for farm property, facilitating the transfer of their business to the next generation. We will continue to protect a business' ability to compete, invest, grow and create jobs. Money that stays in the business will continue to take advantage of the lowest small-business rate in the G7,and some of the most competitive corporate tax rates in the world – more than 12 points lower than the United States. At the heart of these proposals is our promise to the middle class, and a belief that every Canadian should feel confident that they have the same opportunity to succeed and benefit from a growing economy. That confidence starts with knowing everyone is treated fairly.
回复
空军紧张啥
回复
房地产崩盘对除了无房户以外的任何人都没有好处,所以我们不希望房市崩盘,但我更加反对像年初那样的疯炒。 如果实在不能做到3-5%的年均平稳增长,非要在"疯炒猛涨"和"调控崩盘"之间选择,我支持后者。对个人资产虽有负面影响,但对抑制以51华人地产鸡鸡精英们为主体的毁坏海外华人形象的行为有重要意义。
回复
利息也加了。房价也跌了,再不买房怎么给家人交代?😂
回复
多伦多这种地方缺地,阿拉上海人就不要活了。呵呵
回复
你8个乡下人挤一个猪笼,两个白垃圾住6000尺大house
回复
又要加息?太吓人了,容我再买个10年新双车库独立house压压惊。
回复
这至少是你买的第6个压惊独立HOUSE了,你们有钱土豪就是任性!
回复
看来9月份的成交量也会暴增啊,像8月份因你们买独立HOUSE压惊而导致成交量暴增一样,给你100个赞,这才是真NB!
回复
不过我担心的是,即将公布的8月份独立屋成交量数据如果没有显著大幅暴增,那将是对阿雷这位51网络虚拟世界的"新土豪"是多么大的讽刺和耳光啊! 老张这位51网络虚拟世界老土豪是彻底销声匿迹了,迎接"新土豪"阿雷,热烈欢迎,鼓掌啊!
回复
展开 6 条回复
x
x