快讯：加国房市交易趋缓预测房价走平

加通社消息，根据加拿大房地产协会的资料，加国房市今年第3季度录得历史上第三高的售房纪录，共售出房屋单位89,482套。但比起4月至6月的第二季度，房屋总销售量减少4.1%。房市交易减少的趋势在Edmonton, Calgary and Montreal表现更为明显。

有经济学家评论说，尽管国民购房热情不减，消费心理也尚未发生根本性转变，但种种迹象表明，本国房屋交易活动已经没有高峰时段那么活跃。另一方面，持续攀升的房价从某种意义上抑制了购房能力，因此在第四季度和明年，房市交易将呈现进一步减少的趋势，回归到正常水平。与此同时，房价也会开始变平，其上升幅度仅稍稍高于通货膨胀而已。

详细报道请见英文报告：

Home resale activity slips due to high prices but overall picture remains strong (Housing-Sales)

Oct 16, 2007 14:27

By Romina Maurino

THE CANADIAN PRESS

TORONTO _ High prices in the third quarter led to a slight cooling of the home resale market in major Canadian markets, a trend that's expected to continue as sales level off in 2008 from this year's record levels.

Seasonally adjusted sales by real estate agents using the Multiple Listing Service totalled 89,482 units in the July-September period _ the third-highest quarterly level on record, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Sales volume, however, was down 4.1 per cent from the record set in the April-June quarter, due to fewer unit sales in Edmonton, Calgary and Montreal, which more than offset increased sales activity in Vancouver.

``There's no fundamental shift in psychology. People are still quite enthusiastic about making major purchases such as a house or a car, but affordability is starting to erode sales activity,'' CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

``The continued rise in prices has eroded affordability and, as a result, sales are projected to ease back to more normal levels the rest of the year and over 2008.''

But while CREA expects sales to recede from the records set in the first half of this year, Klump stresses that sales ``remain very strong.''

In both Calgary and Edmonton, he said, the rapid increase in prices has resulted in sales activity declining from record peaks. ``They used to be very strong sellers markets and they've returned to balanced territory,'' Klump said.

CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said he also expects the housing market to start to level off, bringing good news for prospective buyers.

``I think that we will see prices definitely start to level off and rise a little bit more than inflation, nothing more than that,'' he said.

``The days of double-digit gains, especially in Central Canada, are over and we are going back to a more normal level of activity, which is just one or two percentage points higher than inflation for the next 12 months, mainly for Ontario and Quebec.''

Those two manufacturing-heavy provinces, he said, are the most likely see slower income growth because of the impact of a strong Canadian dollar and the so-called credit crunch in the U.S.

Troubles in the U.S. subprime mortgage market of riskier borrowers have led to tens of thousands of foreclosures and a plunge in demand for housing in California, Florida and other U.S. states. Some estimate American housing starts in the next year could be down by 40 per cent and are not likely to improve before 2009.

The credit crunch will also likely mean higher mortgage rates for some buyers, as well as less availability to risky borrowers in Canada, at least for the next six to 12 months, Tal said. But, temporary pain aside, a slowdown in Canadian housing ``will not be a bad thing.''

``That will be a reflection of a housing market that is functioning the way it should function,'' Tal said.

``We don't want to create an artificial bubble as we've seen in the U.S., where for two or three years house prices and housing activity was artificially held by all kinds of exotic mortgages and very easy credit.''

CREA said Tuesday that MLS residential new listings numbered 148,022 units on a seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter of 2007 _ the second-highest level on record and less than one per cent below the record set in the second quarter this year.

The average price nationally rose 11.9 per cent in the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, to $329,113.

Record high average quarterly prices were recorded in Vancouver, Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon; the Ontario cities of Sudbury, Windsor, St. Catharines and Kitchener-Waterloo; Quebec City and St. John's, N.L.