文世昌：中海油进军加拿大会否碰壁？

Should Nexen go to China ? Net Benefit or Reciprocity?

中海油CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Corp.)斥资逾151亿加元，收购Alberta亚尔伯特省能源企业Nexen尼克森，加拿大各大报章隆重其事，众说纷纭。

Globe and Mail《环球邮报》头条标题：CNOOC bids for Nexen: China bets big on Canadian oil 。副题：$15.1 billion deal likely to win Ottawa’s approval and become biggest-ever foreign acquisition by a Chinese firm。《邮报》当天的专题探索是：NEXEN DEAL: China’s bold step stirs the oil sands。

几天后，《邮报》Report on Business商业报导版的cover story封面故事Nexen Deal，开始对中国国营企业在全球能源舞台扮演重要角色，以及加拿大政府对国家资源被夺如何回应？陆续发出多方面的疑问：The Nexen takeover shows how far Chinese companies have come on the global stage. But how should Canada deal with state-controlled firms that use their financial muscle to grab prized resources?

分析这项举世瞩目的天价收购，可以先从投资者和尼克森公司股东角度考虑：尼克森等候买家不自今天始，最理想做法，由加拿大人的资金收购，争议性就不存在；可惜多月来，未有本地能源集团青睐。

这次交易 涉及的双方，不是简单的一间上市公司收购另一上市公司，而是有国家资金做后台老闆的中国国家企业出手，即所谓state-owned enterprises (SOEs)。况且中海油是集权国家投资海外工具，playing by party rule more than by the rule，a tipped playing field more than fair play，难免缺乏平等的竞争性。

市场公平竞争这一点，最备受批评者挑剔。例如能源业权威杂志“Oil and Gas Journal”以The CNOOC-Nexen deal为题，便有以下批判性观点：

Competitive fairness and motive should be on the Harper government's agenda. CNOOC enjoys the financial backing of its principal owner, which has foreign-exchange reserves of $3.3 trillion, largest in the world for a single country. The advantage in access to capital enabled CNOOC to offer a premium to Nexen's stock-market value of 61%. While this clearly benefits owners of Nexen, which is rumored to have been for sale awhile, the prevalence of knockout bids by Chinese SOEs for oil and gas properties skews competition.。

中海油收购前做足工夫，加入令尼克森公司股东和加国政府欢迎的交易条件，避免重蹈2005年收购美国优尼科(Unocal)失利覆辙。例如：提出以Calgary卡加利为集团在北美业务总部、挽留现行管理层、把中海油股票在多伦多证交所挂牌、承诺进一步投资等；再加上以逾六成溢价提出併购，极力讨好持股者欢心。

表面上，哈珀政府最要考虑的是这项收购会否符合加拿大投资法例中，达到“淨值利益”的检核水平：The Investment Canada Act compels Ottawa to decide whether a large investment proposal promises “net benefit” for all of Canada。Net Benefit这一关不难闯，以市场61%溢价，以及当年修法时故意宽鬆，政府作决定时要保障和促进加国利益，诠释字义的弹性很大。工业部长只要认同：The investment will give Nexen’s struggle Long Lake in situ project in Alberta oil sands fresh life。收购后，尼克森争扎求存的当地油砂矿，重获生机，经济利益，便算显而易见：The prospective economic benefits are clear。 所以，今天亚省政府不仅不反对this acquisition or takeover ，而且大表欢迎。

加拿大需要的是资金，中国有的是资金。Canadian energy projects need capital，China has capital，the two will come together。

持收购正面看法的人士，首推现任CIBC银行高级副行政总裁Jim Prentice，他曾经是主管合併收购政策的前联邦工业部长， 7月26日，他在《环球邮报》撰文Nexen deal: Canada must remain open for business 。文章大意认为总理哈珀作出会否批准收购的决定时，很可能考虑大环境、大气候多个地缘政治因素，以加国经济利益为重，和中国维持新贸易战略伙伴关係；哈珀答应过向华开放商贸市场，不能食言：

First, the Canadian government is in the midst of taking our strategic partnership with China to a new and more important level. This is essential to our future economic well-being.

Second, we have repeatedly signalled to the Chinese that Canada is “open for business” – their business. The CNOOC offer carefully responds to Canada’s open and repeated entreaties.

Third, Nexen’s assets are neither the largest nor the best in the Canadian oil sands.

Jim Prentice认为Stephen Harper 很明白加国不能再以美国一国，作为出口的唯一大顾客，而漠视中国崛起所带来投资天然资源的资金。而且，尼克森的资产虽已达世界级，但不是加国最大最好 的油砂矿，收购后外资控制本国资源程度，未去到令人担心地步。况且，中国投资的潜在利益，远远超越过去的商业原则、道义考虑。结论是，他大力赞成这项交易：

The bottom line is that we cannot turn our back now, and given the geopolitical context and the relative insignificance of the assets in question, this would be a bad time to stop. Fundamentally, we must remain open for business, especially to our strategic partners, and the Chinese are among those partners.

但是，假如我们从全球性石油政治的宏观角度：This decision from the Canadian government will influence the competitive framework for oil and gas investment around the world; 以及从加拿大一贯贸易政策的大原则出发，不少石油专家和商业管理权威学者， 异口同声，提出国际级大型收购，必需顾及RECIPROCITY这个重要因素。

多伦多大学Rotman School of Management 院长Roger Martin 认为中加两国要以利益原则平等互换的地位，处理收购：

This is why the standard on foreign direct investment should be the standard of all trade matters, not the vapid standard of net benefit. That standard is reciprocity – i.e., if we allow X in our country, will you allow the same sort of X in yours?

That is why we should ask China to sign a foreign direct investment treaty specifying that if a Canadian company attempts to take over a Chinese company of similar size, China will automatically approve it. If the answer is no, we should turn down the Nexen acquisition on the principle of the absence of reciprocity。

上面引述过的能源杂志 “Oil and Gas Journal” 的评论，也持相同观点：

Ottawa can and should ask what doors might open in China for Canadian companies if the Nexen deal proceeds.

Reciprocity is fundamental to relations between governments and properly comes into play in business transactions involving SOEs。

RECIPROCITY is a situation or principle in which two people or countries provide the same help or advantages to each other。这个互相对等，互惠互换的条件，在加拿大百多年来，行之有效的国际贸易指导原则，放诸四海而皆准，正是整个收购问题的症结所在。

假如中国的领导人万一不同意，不答应，总理哈珀怎麽办？

Harper is right to want to move slowly and thoughtfully. His decision will set a precedent. CNOOC's takeover of Nexen won't be the only deal like this. China's oil and gas companies aren't the only SOEs craving acquisitions. More will come。先例一开，纷至沓来！