安省要想平衡预算， 必须要削减公共服务

甘蔗没有两头甜的。要想平衡预算， 必须要削减公共服务。要想维持公共服务，要么举债， 要么加税。

作为 Lobbyist ， 我在财政厅的Budget Lock Up 4小时内， 逐行Review 预算， 很多细节。

这份Analysis， 涵盖 移民 教育 医疗 大麻 矿业 等行业。 希望对大家安家、投资、置业 安省有帮助。

Prepared by Karen Woods, Senior Associate, Solstice Public Affairs Inc.

Prior to working in the lobbying field, I spent a good part of my career in big corporations such as Microsoft and BellMedia. “Cut Once, Cut Deep and Cut Quickly” has been the underlying modus operandi when it comes to work force restructuring. The 2019 Ontario budget revealed on April 11 is no exception. The Ford government was elected on the promiseof “restoring fiscal sanity in the province”. Therefore, it should come as asurprise to NOBODY that this government will start on a series of austerity measures in order to reign in the out of control spending.

Before I offer an in-depth analysis on the2019 Ontario budget. Let’s look at some facts and figures.

Today, Ontario has the largest subnational debtin the world. It is a towering $343 billion. Payment on interest alone isaround $2 million per minute. Tough decisions require tough measures. The government’s decision to balance the budget by 2024 means every Ontarian mustexercise belt tightening whether they like it or not.

Total revenue for 2019 is estimated to behigher than planned 2018 at $2551 million. Total expenses is just around $162.5 billion, $744 million higher than projected.

These are the top four higher than expectedsectors:

HealthCare: $480 million higher, due to settlement with physicians, Ontario Drug Benefit Program, and increased resources for addictiontreatment.

EducationSector:$68 million higher, mainly because of CARE(Childcare Access And Relief from Expense) from tax credit and the largestonline consultation in province did back in 2018.

Post-SecondaryEducation Training:$649 million higher. Higher than forecasted spending on collegesand universities. OSAP cost. Government is retooling OSAP to save some money.

Childrenand Service Sector:$34 million higher. Government will make some cuts here too.

Hereare the deficit projections

$10.3 billion in 2019

$6.8 billion in 2020

$5.6 billion in 2021

Balanced budget in 2023

Below is a sector by sector break down ofhow it is impacted by the budget.

Infrascture

Key Priorities Change

1. Prioritizing hospital projects

2. Pausing some capital fundingfor high speed rail

3. Cancelling a freight rail by-passbecause Go Transit Kitchener is already in place

Theseare some of the interesting “caveat” features this budget

· Auto Insurance : EndingDiscrimination in Automobile Insurance ACT : End Postal Code Discrimination.

· Opening up more alcohol stores

· Government to legalize OnlineLegal Gambling Market

· MPAC to have more tax payersrepresentatives (ratepayers association) on the board

· Ending Green Energy Contract,

· Supporting Nuclear Industry in Ontario.

· Ontario Place: Interest tosubmit in spring 2019

HealthCare

Integrated Health Care Delivery Model,early adopters to be announced in 2019

Two Initiatives

1. Digital Health Care PatientFile

2. Centralized procurement system

Another $267 million for Home and community care

$17 billion in capital grants to modernizehealth care

Mental Health and Addictions

Dental Care for Low Income Seniors

Paramedics: streamline land ambulancedispatch

The government is proposing amendments toPSLRTA (Public Sector Labour Relations Transition Act). the Ontario Labour Relations Board would no longer have authority over restructuring of health serviceproviders’ bargaining units.

Education

A new math curriculum for Gr 1 to Gr 12students will be phased in over 4 years.

Education Minister Lisa Thompson said approximately 3400 teaching positions will be eliminated through attrition.There will be cuts to the education no doubt. We should also expect massive jobactions and labour unrest from all the teachers’ unions.

Cannabis

Interestingly, the province is forecastinga much lower than expected cannabis sales

OCS Net loss: $25 million 2018 to 2019

OCS Net Income: $10 million 2019, $25million in 2020, $40 million in 2022

75% of the duty on Cannabis sales istransferred to Ontario and 3.9% on producer selling price account for sales taxrate differentials

Currently, there is a national shortage on cannabis supply. When Ontario has determined that the federal government has provided for enough reliable supply, it will issuefurther retail store authorizations, including in municipalities with apopulation of less than 50,000 and in First Nation communities.

Environment

Investment in Clean Technologies: Ontario Job Creation Investment Incentive to write off equipment for clean energy taxcredit.

Jobs,Skilled Training and Investment

Saving Ontario Business $5 billion in 2019through cancelled Cap and Trade, minimum wage kept at $14, reducing WSIBpremium

Corporate Marginal Effective Tax Rate in2019 in Ontario: 12.6%

Removed labour regulations in Bill 66, suchas workers’ overtime calculation. It is viewed as a pro business measure. Butmany labour unions have been raising concerns about Bill 66 for the past fewmonths.

Francophone Community Grants: increasedgrants to businesses, entrepreneurs and nonprofit organizations.

Promote careers in advanced manufacturing

Support R&D for increasingCommercialization and Early Adopters

Post-Secondary Trades

StrategicMandate Agreement (SMA) between the province and universities and colleges willnot based on outcome and performance. 25% of funding. 10 metrics aligned forsectors with the government’s priorities on skill training, job outcomes and economic,community impact. The previous Liberal government had 38 metrics.

Askingprofessors to consider timely retirement, gradually removing double dipping

Ontario’sIntellectual Property Market

Skill Trades

Reforming apprenticeship

Promoting trades in high school

OINP (Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program):open for transport truck driver and personal supporter worker, smaller communities’settlement program, recalibrate investment and net worth threshold for OINP’sEntrepreneur Stream.

Ruraland Northern Communities

Reviewing the Far North Act, to start Ringof Fire Development

Creating a Mining Working Group

The Mining Working Group will be chaired bythe Minister of Energy, Northern Development and Mines

Expandingthe Northern Ontario Internship Program

Northern Ontario Heritage Fund 2 streams

1) Northern Ontario IndigenousInternship

2) Northern Ontario Skilled LabourInternship

Overall, the 2019 budget is in line withthe Ford Government’s mandate. We mustremember that Doug Ford is a populist premier. He was elected in the wind ofchange after 16 years of perceived “Liberal mismanagement”. He ran on theplatform of balancing the budget while not hurting frontline public servants,nurses and teachers. Premier Doug Ford currently sits around 35% inthe poll.

That is low for a premier who has not yet completed year one. How committed this government is with theirambitious agenda to balance the budget in five years will largely depend onwhat kind of resistance they get from the public. Fiscal conservatism has afinishing line while populism is a moving target. A good example would be thegovernment recently walked back on their autism funding cut after facing roundsof protests by angry parents.

One area I’d like to comment on is the government’s manufacturing strategy. On March 28, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles' Windsor Assembly Plan announced that they will be laying off 1500 full time employees by September 30. This is the second large scale lay off in the auto sector in the past 12months. Premier Ford said he wants to protect manufacturing jobs inOntario...as he should.

However, this government and the federal governmentneed to understand that the underlying economic structure has changed,drastically, not just in Ontario, Canada, but also globally. AI and automationare forecasted to replace about 10 million jobs, mostly manufacturing jobs. How prepared our governments are facing thisinevitable challenge is uncertain.